Mortgage rate path uncertain as swap rates rise
Mortgage market analysis
- Over the past few weeks, swap rates have been on the rise, and as a result, lenders may be more cautious with their rate pricing, with some already increasing rates over the past few days, such as HSBC, NatWest and Santander.
- Year-on-year average mortgage rates across the two-, five and 10-year fixed terms are down to 4.85%, 4.94% and 5.60% respectively.
- The Bank of England Base Rate was cut to 3.75% in December 2025, but the 0.25% cut has not been mirrored by average mortgage rates. The average standard variable rate (SVR) has fallen by 0.10%, from 7.25% to 7.15% since the start of December 2025. Since the start of February 2025 up to the start of this month, 1% has been shaved off BBR, but only 0.63% has dropped off the average SVR.
- The Moneyfacts Average Mortgage Rate has fallen over the last 12 months to 4.90%. The rate has been below 5% since the start of November 2025.
Rachel Springall, Finance Expert at Moneyfactscompare.co.uk, said:
“Borrowers looking to refinance will be encouraged to see fixed rates drop over recent months, but wider market uncertainty is starting to impact mortgage rate setting. Swap rates have been on the rise over recent weeks, which can lead to a pause in any substantial cuts by lenders. Some lenders may even increase rates, such as those who priced a bit too low last month, so now is a great time for borrowers to secure a low-rate deal if they need to refinance. Remortgage customers stand to benefit the most from refinancing this year, coming off the average standard variable rate (SVR), they could save around £350 per month* on their mortgage repayments, which is around £4,200 over 12 months.
“First-time buyers may be feeling much more positive about getting their first foot on the property ladder this year, with stress test relaxation and falling rates, but more affordable housing would really be a game changer. Those looking to buy right now will find many lenders, such as building societies, offering a selection of innovative products aimed at those with a very small deposit, or those relying on their sole income to get a mortgage. However, The Money Charity has estimated that it takes 11 years for first-time buyers to build a big enough deposit, so they may also need to take out a longer mortgage term to reduce their monthly repayments. However, if they can afford to overpay their mortgage, it will help in the long run. A regular overpayment of £200 per month on a £250,000 mortgage can shave almost 13 years off a 40-year term, and save more than £118,000, based on the Moneyfacts Average Mortgage Rate of 4.90%.
“The bad news this year will come to those who are coming off a cheap fixed rate mortgage from five years ago. While many could refinance up to six months in advance of their deal ending with their existing lender, seeking advice would be a wise choice to navigate other options across the mortgage maze. Borrowers will find the average rate on a five-year fixed mortgage is more than 2% higher than back in February 2021, when BBR was just 0.10%, so such cheap mortgages could not be sustainable. The mortgage market needs stability and innovation to support borrowers, such as modernising regulation, one of the key themes to be reviewed by the Financial Conduct Authority, laid out in its ‘Roadmap’ for the mortgage market.”
*Average standard variable rate (SVR) is currently 7.15%. Calculations based on a £250,000 mortgage over a 25-year term on a repayment basis. SVR repayment £1,790 per month, versus £1,439 per month on 4.85% two-year fixed rate.
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Mortgage market analysis
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Average mortgage rates
|
Feb-21
|
Feb-24
|
Feb-25
|
Aug-25
|
Jan-26
|
Feb-26
|
|
Standard variable rate (SVR)
|
4.41%
|
8.17%
|
7.78%
|
7.42%
|
7.25%
|
7.15%
|
|
Two-year fixed mortgage
|
2.53%
|
5.56%
|
5.52%
|
5.01%
|
4.83%
|
4.85%
|
|
Five-year fixed mortgage
|
2.73%
|
5.18%
|
5.32%
|
5.01%
|
4.91%
|
4.94%
|
|
10-year fixed mortgage
|
2.85%
|
5.87%
|
5.65%
|
5.60%
|
5.60%
|
5.60%
|
|
Average rates shown are as at the first available day of the month, unless stated otherwise. Source: Moneyfactscompare.co.uk
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| |
|
Moneyfacts Average Mortgage Rate
|
| |
Feb-21
|
Feb-24
|
Feb-25
|
Aug-25
|
Jan-26
|
Feb-26
|
|
Moneyfacts Average Mortgage Rate
|
2.65%
|
5.46%
|
5.45%
|
5.04%
|
4.87%
|
4.90%
|
|
Calculated from the total of all on-sale, core market, fixed and variable tracker mortgages. Standard exclusions apply: Self-build only, shared ownership only, new build only, shared equity only, standard variable rates and adverse credit.
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Source: Moneyfacts Average Mortgage Rate.
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Mortgage rate path uncertain as swap rates rise
Mortgage market analysis
- Over the past few weeks, swap rates have been on the rise, and as a result, lenders may be more cautious with their rate pricing, with some already increasing rates over the past few days, such as HSBC, NatWest and Santander.
- Year-on-year average mortgage rates across the two-, five and 10-year fixed terms are down to 4.85%, 4.94% and 5.60% respectively.
- The Bank of England Base Rate was cut to 3.75% in December 2025, but the 0.25% cut has not been mirrored by average mortgage rates. The average standard variable rate (SVR) has fallen by 0.10%, from 7.25% to 7.15% since the start of December 2025. Since the start of February 2025 up to the start of this month, 1% has been shaved off BBR, but only 0.63% has dropped off the average SVR.
- The Moneyfacts Average Mortgage Rate has fallen over the last 12 months to 4.90%. The rate has been below 5% since the start of November 2025.
Rachel Springall, Finance Expert at Moneyfactscompare.co.uk, said:
“Borrowers looking to refinance will be encouraged to see fixed rates drop over recent months, but wider market uncertainty is starting to impact mortgage rate setting. Swap rates have been on the rise over recent weeks, which can lead to a pause in any substantial cuts by lenders. Some lenders may even increase rates, such as those who priced a bit too low last month, so now is a great time for borrowers to secure a low-rate deal if they need to refinance. Remortgage customers stand to benefit the most from refinancing this year, coming off the average standard variable rate (SVR), they could save around £350 per month* on their mortgage repayments, which is around £4,200 over 12 months.
“First-time buyers may be feeling much more positive about getting their first foot on the property ladder this year, with stress test relaxation and falling rates, but more affordable housing would really be a game changer. Those looking to buy right now will find many lenders, such as building societies, offering a selection of innovative products aimed at those with a very small deposit, or those relying on their sole income to get a mortgage. However, The Money Charity has estimated that it takes 11 years for first-time buyers to build a big enough deposit, so they may also need to take out a longer mortgage term to reduce their monthly repayments. However, if they can afford to overpay their mortgage, it will help in the long run. A regular overpayment of £200 per month on a £250,000 mortgage can shave almost 13 years off a 40-year term, and save more than £118,000, based on the Moneyfacts Average Mortgage Rate of 4.90%.
“The bad news this year will come to those who are coming off a cheap fixed rate mortgage from five years ago. While many could refinance up to six months in advance of their deal ending with their existing lender, seeking advice would be a wise choice to navigate other options across the mortgage maze. Borrowers will find the average rate on a five-year fixed mortgage is more than 2% higher than back in February 2021, when BBR was just 0.10%, so such cheap mortgages could not be sustainable. The mortgage market needs stability and innovation to support borrowers, such as modernising regulation, one of the key themes to be reviewed by the Financial Conduct Authority, laid out in its ‘Roadmap’ for the mortgage market.”
*Average standard variable rate (SVR) is currently 7.15%. Calculations based on a £250,000 mortgage over a 25-year term on a repayment basis. SVR repayment £1,790 per month, versus £1,439 per month on 4.85% two-year fixed rate.
|
Mortgage market analysis
|
|
Average mortgage rates
|
Feb-21
|
Feb-24
|
Feb-25
|
Aug-25
|
Jan-26
|
Feb-26
|
|
Standard variable rate (SVR)
|
4.41%
|
8.17%
|
7.78%
|
7.42%
|
7.25%
|
7.15%
|
|
Two-year fixed mortgage
|
2.53%
|
5.56%
|
5.52%
|
5.01%
|
4.83%
|
4.85%
|
|
Five-year fixed mortgage
|
2.73%
|
5.18%
|
5.32%
|
5.01%
|
4.91%
|
4.94%
|
|
10-year fixed mortgage
|
2.85%
|
5.87%
|
5.65%
|
5.60%
|
5.60%
|
5.60%
|
|
Average rates shown are as at the first available day of the month, unless stated otherwise. Source: Moneyfactscompare.co.uk
|
| |
|
Moneyfacts Average Mortgage Rate
|
| |
Feb-21
|
Feb-24
|
Feb-25
|
Aug-25
|
Jan-26
|
Feb-26
|
|
Moneyfacts Average Mortgage Rate
|
2.65%
|
5.46%
|
5.45%
|
5.04%
|
4.87%
|
4.90%
|
|
Calculated from the total of all on-sale, core market, fixed and variable tracker mortgages. Standard exclusions apply: Self-build only, shared ownership only, new build only, shared equity only, standard variable rates and adverse credit.
|
|
Source: Moneyfacts Average Mortgage Rate.
|